Was this the week that China's rise to world dominance finally became unstoppable?
The Ikea superstore in the port city of Dalian, China, is a blue-and-yellow monument to the global reach of Western commerce, but any shopper stumbling out through the back door would be confronted by a jaw-dropping symbol of rapidly changing times. In the docks behind the store sits a 60,000-ton aircraft carrier.
This huge ship – nearly three times the size of Britain’s sole remaining carrier, HMS Illustrious – was originally built in the Soviet Union.
Still under construction when communism collapsed, it was bought by a Hong Kong company, which claimed it was going to tow the ship to Macau and turn it into a floating hotel and casino.
China had already converted two former Soviet aircraft carriers into gambling dens, so this was not as far-fetched as it sounded, but the third ship never reached Macau. It was taken to Dalian, painted in the colours of the People’s Liberation Army Navy and fitted with a flight deck and new guns and missiles.
For years, China’s spokesmen kept insisting that the ship was still going to be a casino, but last Wednesday the Chief of the General Staff came clean on the world’s worst-kept military secret.
In plain view, behind Ikea, is the first unambiguous sign that China intends to project its military power far beyond its own shores.
Senior officers in Beijing insist that they would never use the aircraft carrier for such a task, even though that is the only thing aircraft carriers are good for.
It is true that we will not wake up tomorrow to see Chinese jets streaking overhead. American military power still dwarfs China’s. The USA has 11 carrier groups, while China is still building its first; and, by China’s own admission, American technology is 20 years ahead.
Even so, since the Nineties, China has been rolling back America’s reach in the western Pacific. When historians a century from now look back on China’s rise to global power, the carrier behind the Ikea store may stand out as the turning point.
Five years ago, I started writing my book Why The West Rules – For Now. In it I argued that geography has been the ultimate force behind Western success, but I calculated that if levels of development increase across the 21st Century at the same pace as they did in the 20th, East Asian wealth and power will catch up with the West’s around the year 2100.
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It is true that we will not wake up tomorrow to see Chinese jets streaking overhead. American military power still dwarfs China's. The USA has 11 carrier groups, while China is still building its first; and, by China's own admission,
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